Week 4 Picks: Guaranteed Wrong or Your Money Back!

Last week I suffered a devastating 11-5 setback, ruining my hopes and dreams of having found a way to beat the bookies. That shot me up to 23-25--or roughly .500, just like everyone else. I'd be equally happy with 11-3 or 3-11 this week--just not 8-6, please.

TEXANS (-9) over Raiders (RIGHT 1-0)

I, for one, think the Texans are plenty good enough to beat the Raiders by double digits.

JAGUARS (+3) over Flaming Thumbtacks (RIGHT 2-0)

Rule 5a.

PATRIOTS (-1.5) over Ravens (RIGHT 3-0)

BE CAREFUL! IT'S A TRAP!

Giants (-9) over CHIEFS (RIGHT 4-0)

This kind of feels like a BE CAREFUL! IT'S A TRAP! game, too. Shouldn't this be more like Giants -17? The Chefs are awful. But hey, now that they've rid themselves of Tyler Thigpen's insidious influence, maybe they'll make strides toward respectable badness.

REDSKINS (-7.5) over Buccaneers (WRONG 4-1)

I hate this game. I don't mean that in the sense that having to watch it would offend my sensibilities (though that's true too); I mean I hate trying to pick against this line. Excellent job by the bookies. The Buccaneers are now in the Lions Zone, where they're so bad that I'm just not going to pick them until they give me a reason to. Even if it's against a team that barely beat the Rams and then lost to the Lions.

COLTS (-10.5) over Seahawks (RIGHT 5-1)

I briefly pondered taking Seattle here, because it's not Peyton Manning's style to blow anyone out anymore. But I reconsidered after I remembered the Seahawks, already a weak team, have to come east to play this one. I'm not thrilled about laying 11 on the Colts, though. Their defense is not very good, and Manning likes to wait until it's close in the 4th quarter before unleashing the dragon, resulting in lots of wins in the 4-10 points range. I should take Seattle. But I can't bring myself to do it.

Bengals (-6) over BROWNS (WRONG 5-2)

The Browns are just so bad in every facet of the game that there's just no number of points you can dissuade me from laying against them right now. The Bengals are no great shakes, but they're average-ish, and an average team beats the Browns by 7-10 points on the road, 10-14 points at home.

BEARS (-10) over Lions (RIGHT 6-2)

Don't get carried away over the Lions just yet, Junior. They're still the Lions. The Bears are average-to-above-average, which is plenty good enough to beat the Lions by 10+ points at home. These are the sorts of games Jay Cutler builds his reputation on, where he goes 23 for 37 for 338 yards and three touchdowns against a user friendly defense.

SAINTS (-7) over Jets (RIGHT 7-2)

Good golly, that's a LOT of points to lay. I'm being really tempted to take the points... but I really expect the Saints to win this game, and so I'll tell myself the bookies want me to take the bait and back the Jets. But a better reason to take the Saints and lay the points is: Once the Saints get, say, a ten point lead, what are the Jets going to do? Toss it all on Mark Sanchez' shoulders and let 'er rip? I'd be reaching for the bourbon and/or the remote at that point had I the misfortune of being a Jets fan.

Bills (-1.5) over DOLPHINS (WRONG 7-3)

I'm just taking the away team and moving on with my life. The Bills are the blandest, most boring team in the history of football. The Dolphins are discombobulated all to hell, but fairly well coached. Pick your poison.

49ERS (-9.5) over Rams (RIGHT 8-3)

Vegas has to keep stooping to more and more ridiculous spreads to find people willing to call their bookie and say, with a straight face and not at gunpoint, "I want to put $100 on the Rams." They'll find equilibrium, but they haven't quite found it yet. The 49ers aren't bad, and 'not bad'is probably good enough to beat the worst team in the NFL by 10 points in their own building. Wow. I mean... really. I'm betting on the 49ers--the 49ers!!!--to win by 10 points, on the road, two time zones away from home. How long has it been since that's happened? 15 years, right?

Cowboys (-3) over BRONCOS (WRONG 8-4)

This is the first semblance of an NFL team the Broncos have played so far. The experience will be valuable for them, but no fun.

Chargers (+6.5) over STEELERS

This is another very tough game. Excellent work by the bookies. Fact: The Chargers are much, much better than the Steelers. (I'm not sure if the public at large has yet come around to the fact the Steelers are mediocre.) Fact: The Chargers are coached by Norv. Fact: The Chargers are traveling to the east coast, where both their own record and west coast teams' records in general are ghastly. So those things roughly cancel each other out, and we're left with basically a toss-up. My policy with toss-ups used to be to shrug my shoulders and take the points, but frankly that's led to a record similar to that of the aforementioned west coast teams traveling east. My new policy is 'when in doubt, back the better team'. But good news, Steelers fans: We get two weeks off after this! And then Polamalu will be back!

VIKINGS (-3.5) over Packers

To be perfectly honest, I expect the NFL and the TV network will stop at nothing to see a Vikings win here. Refs openly trying to fix the game like it's the 2005 divisional round, loaded footballs being slipped into the game to lead to Rodgers interceptions and/or fumbles, Brad Childress being kidnapped, drugged and replaced by Bill Belichick wearing a Brad Childress Halloween mask--it's all in play here.