REDSKINS (-6) over
The Chefs are so bad that I'm just not picking them to beat anyone. Not even the Deadskins. This will be Jim Zorn's last game as a head coach if the Chefs cover this line.
Texans (+5) over BENGALS (Right, 1-1)
Is the Zeth about to get his fingers burned by refusing to believe in the Bengals yet again? More at 11! In doubt, so I'm taking what I perceive to be the better team. I do think this line is a little much, but not quite enough to be a bona fide Trap Game.
Browns (+14) over STEELERS (Right, 2-1)
Same as last week. The Steelers win this game 75% or 80% of the time, but making a habit of laying two touchdowns on a bad defense is a solid way to make your wallet lighter. Also, wait and see how much you read some variation of "Hey, Derek Anderson looked great yesterday! I guess he just needed time to settle himself in!" tomorrow from various writers who are too lazy to look up quality-of-opponent.
VIKINGS (-3) over Ravens (Wrong, 2-2)
It's the second, or possibly first, time the Vikings have been challenged all year, depending on what you think of the Packers. I really wanted to pick the Ravens here, because this is kind of a must-win for them after embarrassing themselves at home against the Bengals, right? Lose this one and they could be two games behind Cincinnati, which we all can agree is no enjoyable place to be. But then... it IS the Bengals, and the Steelers won't impede them, so being 3-3 isn't a disaster. It's more of a statement game--hey, we can beat a good team, yo. But in doubt; taking better team. And don't forget about the zebras.....
JAGUARS (-9.5) over Rams (Wrong, 2-3)
I'm hesitantly going against Rule 5a. I don't believe I have ever gone against Rule 5a and been right in my life. But I have to, because I may never have run into a football team as bad as the Rams in my life, and the game's in Jacksonville. Were it in St. Louis, I would have ridden Rule 5a all the way even though it would have been only Jaguars -3.5.
Giants (+3) over SAINTS (Wrong, 2-4)
I'm really expecting Eli Manning to have a monster day on the Saints' track. I think one of the sneaky things about Manning--maybe one of the things that explain the 2007 run--might be that he's better on the road than at home. These two teams are likely to meet again, in whichever city's team wins today, for the NFC Championship.
BUCCANEERS (+3) over Panthers (Wrong, 2-5)
I'm going to hold to Rule 8a (Home team always wins NFC South matchups) despite how terrible the Buccaneers are. The Buccaneers aren't going to go 0-16, and at home against a weak opponent with a terrible quarterback seems like as good a time as any to pick up one of their two wins of 2009.
PACKERS (-14) over Lions (Right, 3-5)
The Packers' defense, unlike the Steelers', is plenty good enough to lay the wood to the Lions.
Eagles (-14) over RAIDERS (Wrong, 3-6)
It's good to be an NFC East team this year, isn't it? What a ludicrously easy schedule.
Cardinals (+3) over SEAHAWKS (Right, 4-6)
I would say you can write off the 2009 Cardinals if they lose to the Seahawks to drop to 2-3, except you really can't. You can never really write off, or write on, the Cardinals. They're getting worse than the Jaguars about the unpredictability. Either Fitzgerald or Boldin--whichever one the Seahawks don't double all day--will have a huge game here. Probably Boldin.
P.S. This would normally be the classic BE CAREFUL! IT'S A TRAP! game of the week, as you'd really expect it to be more like Cardinals -4. But I can't really apply that to any game involving the Cardinals. Maybe there's a hardcore Cardinals fan out there that knows them as well as I know the Steelers, but barring that, you should never bet money in any direction on any Cardinals game.
Bills (+9.5) over JETS (Right, 5-6)
There are two things you should hesitate to lay a lot of points on, regardless of the quality of the rest of the team: Bad defenses, and bad quarterbacks. And the Jets' honeymoon may already be over.
PATRIOTS (-9) over Flaming Thumbtacks (Right, 6-6)
The Flaming Thumbtacks' defense is identical to the Steelers'. You can't run on them, but you don't need to, because the pass defense is exceptionally bad. (The Flaming Thumbtacks are even more extreme than the Steelers; they rank 2nd against the run, 29th against the pass.) Even a weakened Tom Brady should have an easy time picking them apart and winning by two touchdowns.
FALCONS (-3) over Bears (Right, 7-6)
This should be the lock of the week. The betting public has been very slow to realize the Flaming Thumbtacks suck--looks like this week they've finally gotten there--and for some bizarre reason, they've been very slow to realize the Falcons are good. They did go 11-5 last year, you know.
CHARGERS (-3.5) over Broncos
BE CAREFUL! IT'S A TRAP!
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